Score a TD.
This problem is very tricky, and my solution is not the one I envisioned at first glance. I had thought the Mummy with Grab could be used to allow a ghoul to blitz through the line. I also thought there would be a solution with an AGI+ Ghoul as a ball carrier. Unfortunately I could not figure either out. The solution here takes advantage of sidestep, but it requires a 5+ dodge O_o! If you can do better, let me know!
Move #1
Position your players as illustrated. Since the ball lands out of bounds, give it to Ghoul #3. Move Ghoul #4, so he marks Beastman (yellow) #3. This will make your blitz a 3-die block.
Move #2
With Ghoul #5, blitz the Beastman with a 3-die block, but do not follow up. Push the Beastman into Ghoul #3. Take advantage of sidestep and push him up and to the left. Position Ghoul #5 as illustrated.
Move #3
With Zombie #8, block the Beastman into Ghoul #3 and push him up.
Move #4
Move Wight #7 so that he marks both Beastman #2 and Beastman #3. This will form part of the "T" needed for Mummy #1 and Mummy #2 to chain push. His guard will help give the mummies 3-die block support.
Move #5
Complete the "T" with Zombie #5. He adds the extra strength support needed to give Mummy #1 a 3-die block.
Move #6
Block with Mummy #1. It is here that you're hoping for a knockdown. If Beastman #3 is knocked down, Ghoul #3 does not have to dodge out when he runs for the end-zone. Both scenarios are taken into consideration for final probability analysis.
Move #7
Complete the "T" for Mummy #2. Mummy #2 should already have a 3-die block with the 2 guard players marking Beastman #2.
Move #8
Block Beastman #2 with Mummy #2. In this situation you can get push, defender down, or defender stumbles. Push Beastman #2 into Beastman #3. Push Beastman #3 into Ghoul #3. Now Ghoul #3 can reach the endzone!
Move #9
Run to the end-zone! Hopefully, Beastman #3 was knocked down so Ghoul #3 doesn't have to dodge out. Run in between the line, this is a 2+ GFI as well as a 5+ dodge. The next move into the end-zone will require a 2+ GFI and a 4+ dodge roll. Remember to dodge into only 1 tackle zone! Touchdown! Now let's check the probability analysis.
Samba Calculator Results:
There are two branches. The block by Mummy #1 can either end up as a push or as Beastman #3 getting knocked to the ground. If Beastman #3 is down then that's one less dodge for Ghoul #3! Unfortunately the Samba Calculator does not let you compute using this type of branching system. We can still use the calculator to do the heavy lifting for us so we can get the answer we need!
When the 3D block is rolled you will have either a 70.3704% chance of rolling defender down / defender stumbles or a 25.9259% chance of rolling a push result. We have to take this into consideration for our final figures. The easiest way to do this is to allow Samba to figure out the probability of our two branches of events and then multiplying by the corresponding value of our block result. Since the probability for a no Team Reroll scenario is calculated by multiplication, we're safe in skipping the 3D block when inputting the events into Samba. We'll multiply that result with our known figures to probability for that particular branch of events.
Branch #1: Beastman knocked down. Ball carrier Ghoul does not have to dodge out.
1st block 3D (pushes required)
2nd block 2D (pushes required)
3rd block 3D (do not input this block - we know the probability of rolling this is 70.3704%)
4th block 3D (pushes / defender down / defender stumbles)
Other player: Ballcarrier Ghoul
Go For It 2+
Dodge 5+ with dodge skill
Go For It 2+
Dodge 4+ with dodge skill
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Samba Result without Team Reroll: 9.441%
Multiply by 70.3704%
Success Percent without Team Reroll:
6.643%
Branch #2: Ball carrier has to make a 3+ dodge.
1st block 3D (pushes required)
2nd block 2D (pushes required)
3rd block 3D (push result - do not input this block - we know probability = 25.9259%)
4th block 3D (pushes / defender down / defender stumbles)
Other player: Ballcarrier Ghoul
Dodge 3+ with dodge skill
Go For It 2+
Dodge 5+ with dodge skill
Go For It 2+
Dodge 4+ with dodge skill
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Samba Result without Team Reroll: 7.262%
Multiply by 25.9259%
Success Percent without Team Reroll:
1.883%
Team Reroll Calculation
If we make the assumption that we only reroll our 3D block on a failure then we can approximate the probability of success using a Team Reroll. We simply plug in our 3rd block as a 3D Block (push / defender down / defender stumbles) and we ignore the NoReroll result from Samba. We do this for both scenarios so we can get a range. The true answer lies somewhere in between.
Branch #1: Beastman knocked down. Ball carrier Ghoul does not have to dodge out.
1st block 3D (pushes required)
2nd block 2D (pushes required)
3rd block 3D (pushes / defender down / defender stumbles)
4th block 3D (pushes / defender down / defender stumbles)
Other player: Ballcarrier Ghoul
Go For It 2+
Dodge 5+ with dodge skill
Go For It 2+
Dodge 4+ with dodge skill
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Success Percent with Team Reroll: 20.928%
Branch #2: Ball carrier has to make a 3+ dodge.
1st block 3D (pushes required)
2nd block 2D (pushes required)
3rd block 3D (pushes / defender down / defender stumbles)
4th block 3D (pushes / defender down / defender stumbles)
Other player: Ballcarrier Ghoul
Dodge 3+ with dodge skill
Go For It 2+
Dodge 5+ with dodge skill
Go For It 2+
Dodge 4+ with dodge skill
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Success Percent with Team Reroll: 17.043%
Total Probability: Add both branches to get probability of success in either scenario.
Success Percent without Team Reroll:
8.526%
Success Percent with Team Reroll:
In between 17.043% and 20.928%
If the sidestepping ghoul was AGI 4 these probabilities go up to:
Success Percent without Team Reroll: 15.009%
Success Percent with Team Reroll: 32.181% - 34.448%
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