Blood Bowl Challenge #8 (Easy)

Phoenix Kings vs. Got Wood

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Summary

During Match Week 6 at the Old World Football League, Hammertime's Got Wood team (Wood Elves) has put up an early lead against Mardaed's Phoenix Kings (High Elves).  The game has been a nasty slugfest as both coaches have been ruthlessly targeting each other's key players with fouls and blitzes.  After a 4-turn score, Got Wood received a Blitz! kickoff event and has tallied up the score 2-0 on turn 8.  

You're Mardaed and are in control of the High Elves.  You look in frustration as three of your knocked out players fail to wake up.  Your MV9 catcher is also layed out with a niggling injury.  You're trying to stay calm.  You put your Strong Arm Accurate thrower in the backfield and position your men into a one turn TD formation.  The kick is off and a Quick Snap! event is rolled!  Saving the blitz for the catcher, you position Blitzer #6 next to Wood Elf Lineman #5 in hopes of pushing him back into High Elf territory.  You can feel the pressure of the game slipping away.  It's time for you to act!  Score the TD and make this a game again!

Objective

Score a TD.

Rules

• You only have 1 turn left, and you have just started it.
• What's the best chain of events to score the TD.  Who do you blitz?

Rosters

Phoenix Kings (High Elf)
#	Position	MV	STR	AGI	AV	Skills
1	Thrower	6	3	4	8	Pass, Safe Throw, Strong Arm, Accurate, Block, Sure Hands, Catch
2	Catcher	8	3	4	7	Catch, Dodge, Tackle
3	Catcher	8	3	4	7	Catch, Guard
4	Catcher	9	3	4	7	MV+1, Dodge
5	Catcher	8	3	4	7	Dodge
6	Blitzer	7	3	4	8	Block, Mighty Blow, Tackle, Sidestep, Dodge, Fend
7	Blitzer	7	3	5	8	Block, AGI+1, Leap, Dodge
8	Thrower	6	3	4	8	Pass, Safe Throw
13	Lineman	6	3	4	8
14	Lineman	6	3	4	8	Dirty Player
15	Lineman	6	3	4	8
16	Lineman	6	3	4	8

Got Wood (Wood Elf)
#	Position	MV	STR	AGI	AV	Skills
1	Wardancer	8	3	4	7	Block, Dodge, Leap, Mighty Blow, Frenzy, Tackle
3	Catcher	9	2	5	7	Catch, Dodge, Sprint, Side Step, Block, MV+1, Sure Feet, AV +1
4	Lineman	7	4	4	7	STR+, Block
5	Lineman	7	3	4	7	Dodge, Wrestle
6	Lineman	7	3	4	7	Kick
7	Lineman	7	3	4	7	Guard
8	Lineman	7	3	4	7	Dodge, Wrestle
9	Lineman	7	3	4	7
10	Catcher	8	2	4	7	Catch, Dodge, Sprint, Wrestle
11	Thrower	7	3	4	7	Pass, Leader, Sure Hands, Safe Throw Strong Arm, Accurate
12	Treeman	2	6	1	10	Mighty Blow, Loner, Stand Firm, Thick Skull, Guard, Grab, Block, Break Tackle
13	Lineman	7	3	4	7

Skip's Answer

Mardaed was able to score!  In the second half, the Phoenix Kings scored in 2 turns and were hell bent on winning the game through defense.  The Kings came close. The next 6 turns became a mad scramble for the ball with no one scoring.  Final Score 2-2.

The one turn TD is made with three 2D blocks, 2 2+ dodges (1 potential 2+ dodge if the third 2d block is a push), 1 blitz, (2 potential dodges if the blitz is a push, a 3+ dodge and a 2+ dodge) and 2 gfi's.  The blitz poses an interesting problem.  Do you attack the skill-less lineman with 1 die or do you attack the Wrestle, Dodge Catcher with 2 dice?  In either case, if you end up with a push result, you are faced with a 3+ and 2+ dodge.  Feel free to discuss this below.

Update (2/4/2013):

Coach Hitonagashi from FUMBBL brought up a good point.  He suggested that a blitz into the line might not necessarily be the best option.  I looked again at the problem to see if there was an appropriate path for the ball carrier to dodge through the line.  The ball carrier can run down the sideline dodging by Wood Elf lineman #4 to the end-zone.  This would require two 3+ dodges and one 2+ dodge.

Let's break out the calculator and take a look at this hypothetical scenario.  In the first scenario, the ball carrier blitzes a skill-less lineman.  If the blitz results in a push, then then the ball carrier must dodge twice, one through a tackle zone, the other into the end-zone.  He must also make 2 GFI's to score.  This branch results in a success of probability of 19.29% with no reroll.  In the event that the blitz ends with the defender down, the ball carrier only requires 2 GFIs to score.  This branch has a probability of success of 23.148%.  Both branches total 42.438% with no reroll.

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In the second scenario, the ball carrier does not blitz the line.  Instead an extra block is done at the Line Of Scrimmage to push the ball carrier closer to the end-zone.  This is done to eliminate a GFI, but the ball carrier has to dodge through the line.  In the case where the final block ends in a push, the ball carrier must make an additional dodge.  This branch's probability of success is 17.145%.  The more probable event is that you will select defender down / defender stumbles and knock the marking player down.  This frees the ball carrier to make an advance towards the goal.  For this branch, the probability of success is 31.432%.  This equates to a total probability of success (with no reroll) of 48.577%

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Decisions, decisions...

From a no-reroll perspective, the second scenario is the clear winner.  The reroll perspective is a different matter.  In this corner case, if you have a reroll and you have the option of knocking down the player marking the the ball carrier before he blitzes, you should take the blitz.  Otherwise, I would try to get the ball carrier closer and have him dodge through the line.  Coach Hitonagashi makes a very valid point. I didn't realize how potent the Dodge skill could be.

Continue to Challenge #9