Blood Bowl Challenge #7 (Hard)

Boneyard Reapers vs. Darkside Marauders

Click to zoom.  The Marauders' Kickoff Formation

Summary

The 2-1 grind...  a staple of Blood Bowl strategy.  During this Old World Football match, the Boneyard Reapers look to become another victim to the Chaos race... or are they?  You're the Undead coach.  It's the last turn and you're receiving the kickoff.  What's the best way to setup for the 1 turn TD?

Objective

Score a TD.

Rules

• You must do it in 1 turn.
• Position a ghoul in the backfield to field the expected incoming kick.  You can still use him for chain pushing, but you must position him at least 6 spaces from the LOS. 
• Assume the kickoff lands off the field, so you can give directly to your ball carrier.
• Assume you win a reroll during the kickoff.
• For simplicity, treat all chaos players as rookies.
• You can use everyone on your roster.
• Once you figure out your strategy, plug your moves into this Samba Calculator to get the probability of success and compare with Skip's solution.  Blood Bowl Calculator

Rosters

Boneyard Reapers (Undead)
#	Position	MV	STR	AGI	AV	Skills
1	Mummy	3	5	1	9	Mighty Blow, Regeneration, Guard, Stand Firm Grab, Block
2	Mummy	3	5	1	9
3	Ghoul	7	3	3	7	Dodge, Side Step, Sure Hands, Block
4	Ghoul	7	3	4	7	Dodge, AGI+
5	Ghoul	7	3	4	7	Dodge, AGI+
6	Wight	6	3	3	8	Block, Mighty Blow, Guard, Tackle
7	Wight	6	3	3	8	Block, Guard, Mighty Blow, Tackle, Strip Ball, Stand Firm
8	Zombie	4	3	2	8
9	Zombie	4	3	2	8
Darkside Marauders (Chaos)
#	Position	MV	STR	AGI	AV	Skills
	Minotaur	5	5	2	8	Thick Skull, Mighty Blow, Loner, Frenzy, Horns Wild Animal
	Chaos Warrior	5	4	3	9
	Beastman	6	3	3	8

Skip's Answer

This problem is very tricky, and my solution is not the one I envisioned at first glance.  I had thought the Mummy with Grab could be used to allow a ghoul to blitz through the line.  I also thought there would be a solution with an AGI+ Ghoul as a ball carrier.  Unfortunately I could not figure either out.  The solution here takes advantage of sidestep, but it requires a 5+ dodge O_o!  If you can do better, let me know!

Here's my solution: (Thank you to Mikkel Pahlke Fausing for his excellent tool! Original Play Creator)

Move #1

Position your players as illustrated.  Since the ball lands out of bounds, give it to Ghoul #3.  Move Ghoul #4, so he marks Beastman (yellow) #3.  This will make your blitz a 3-die block.

Move #2

With Ghoul #5, blitz the Beastman with a 3-die block, but do not follow up.  Push the Beastman into Ghoul #3.  Take advantage of sidestep and push him up and to the left.  Position Ghoul #5 as illustrated.

Move #3

With Zombie #8, block the Beastman into Ghoul #3 and push him up.

Move #4

Move Wight #7 so that he marks both Beastman #2 and Beastman #3.  This will form part of the "T" needed for Mummy #1 and Mummy #2 to chain push.  His guard will help give the mummies 3-die block support.

Move #5

Complete the "T" with Zombie #5.  He adds the extra strength support needed to give Mummy #1 a 3-die block.

Move #6

Block with Mummy #1.  It is here that you're hoping for a knockdown.  If Beastman #3 is knocked down, Ghoul #3 does not have to dodge out when he runs for the end-zone.  Both scenarios are taken into consideration for final probability analysis.  

Move #7

Complete the "T" for Mummy #2.  Mummy #2 should already have a 3-die block with the 2 guard players marking Beastman #2.  

Move #8

Block Beastman #2 with Mummy #2.  In this situation you can get push, defender down, or defender stumbles.  Push Beastman #2 into Beastman #3.  Push Beastman #3 into Ghoul #3.  Now Ghoul #3 can reach the endzone!

Move #9

Run to the end-zone!  Hopefully, Beastman #3 was knocked down so Ghoul #3 doesn't have to dodge out.  Run in between the line, this is a 2+ GFI as well as a 5+ dodge.  The next move into the end-zone will require a 2+ GFI and a 4+ dodge roll.  Remember to dodge into only 1 tackle zone!  Touchdown!  Now let's check the probability analysis.

Samba Calculator Results:

There are two branches.  The block by Mummy #1 can either end up as a push or as Beastman #3 getting knocked to the ground.  If Beastman #3 is down then that's one less dodge for Ghoul #3!  Unfortunately the Samba Calculator does not let you compute using this type of branching system.  We can still use the calculator to do the heavy lifting for us so we can get the answer we need!

When the 3D block is rolled you will have either a 70.3704% chance of rolling defender down / defender stumbles or a 25.9259% chance of rolling a push result.  We have to take this into consideration for our final figures.  The easiest way to do this is to allow Samba to figure out the probability of our two branches of events and then multiplying by the corresponding value of our block result.  Since the probability for a no Team Reroll scenario is calculated by multiplication, we're safe in skipping the 3D block when inputting the events into Samba.  We'll multiply that result with our known figures to probability for that particular branch of events.

Branch #1: Beastman knocked down.  Ball carrier Ghoul does not have to dodge out.

1st block 3D (pushes required)
2nd block 2D (pushes required)
3rd block 3D (do not input this block - we know the probability of rolling this is 70.3704%)
4th block 3D (pushes / defender down / defender stumbles)
Other player: Ballcarrier Ghoul
Go For It 2+
Dodge 5+ with dodge skill
Go For It 2+
Dodge 4+ with dodge skill
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Samba Result without Team Reroll: 9.441%
Multiply by 70.3704%
Success Percent without Team Reroll: 6.643%

Branch #2: Ball carrier has to make a 3+ dodge.

1st block 3D (pushes required)
2nd block 2D (pushes required)
3rd block 3D (push result - do not input this block - we know probability = 25.9259%)
4th block 3D (pushes / defender down / defender stumbles)
Other player: Ballcarrier Ghoul
Dodge 3+ with dodge skill
Go For It 2+
Dodge 5+ with dodge skill
Go For It 2+
Dodge 4+ with dodge skill
-------------------------------------------------------------------

Samba Result without Team Reroll: 7.262%
Multiply by 25.9259%
Success Percent without Team Reroll: 1.883%

Team Reroll Calculation

If we make the assumption that we only reroll our 3D block on a failure then we can approximate the probability of success using a Team Reroll.  We simply plug in our 3rd block as a 3D Block (push / defender down / defender stumbles) and we ignore the NoReroll result from Samba.  We do this for both scenarios so we can get a range.  The true answer lies somewhere in between.

Branch #1: Beastman knocked down.  Ball carrier Ghoul does not have to dodge out.

1st block 3D (pushes required)
2nd block 2D (pushes required)
3rd block 3D (pushes / defender down / defender stumbles)
4th block 3D (pushes / defender down / defender stumbles)
Other player: Ballcarrier Ghoul
Go For It 2+
Dodge 5+ with dodge skill
Go For It 2+
Dodge 4+ with dodge skill
-------------------------------------------------------------------
 Success Percent with Team Reroll: 20.928%

Branch #2: Ball carrier has to make a 3+ dodge.

1st block 3D (pushes required)
2nd block 2D (pushes required)
3rd block 3D (pushes / defender down / defender stumbles)
4th block 3D (pushes / defender down / defender stumbles)
Other player: Ballcarrier Ghoul
Dodge 3+ with dodge skill
Go For It 2+
Dodge 5+ with dodge skill
Go For It 2+
Dodge 4+ with dodge skill
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Success Percent with Team Reroll: 17.043%

Total Probability:  Add both branches to get probability of success in either scenario.

Success Percent without Team Reroll: 8.526%
Success Percent with Team Reroll: In between 17.043% and 20.928%

If the sidestepping ghoul was AGI 4 these probabilities go up to:
Success Percent without Team Reroll: 15.009%
Success Percent with Team Reroll: 32.181% -  34.448%

Continue to Challenge #8

Blood Bowl Challenge #6 (Hard)

Orc VS. High Elf Scrimmage

FUMBBL view.  Names of coaches changed to protect their identities.  Click to zoom.

Click to zoom.

Another Angle.  Click to zoom.

Summary

This is a rendition of a game played on FUMBBL.  Mardaed was coaching a high elf team and was in awe of the orc offensive tactics.  The orc coach was able to slice through the standard 2 by 2 defense with precision blocks and excellent positioning.  After a few turns, the orcs had the elves entrapped.  Inspired by this, Mardaed called his practice squads to recreate the scenario.

The orcs were putting the high elves on their heels.  They were forcing the high elves to dodge out and regroup.  Mardaed, however, suffered the bane of all elf coaches...  Lineman #9, the first player to take an action,  suffered a 1-1 dodge and fell crumpled to the ground ending the turn!  Now you are the orc coach.  Your mouth is salivating for the carnage that will ensue.  You are eyeing the crowd push opportunity with High Elf Blitzer #5.  But you are feeling like making a statement.  You are going to push 2 players off the pitch!

Objective

Push 2 players off the pitch.

Rules

• You must do it in 1 turn.
• Assume that all 2d (your favor) blocks will result in pushes.  All 1d blocks and 2d blocks in opponent's favor will result as skulls.
• Assume Really Stupid (2+) succeeds, (4+) fails.
• Assume all other 1d6 action rolls fail.
• Don't sacrifice ball security!  You cannot have an easy blitz to your ball carrier by the High Elf team at the end of your turn.  If any blitz is possible, a high elf player who chooses to blitz your ball carrier must require at the least multiple 3+ dodges to reach the ball carrier, preferably a 2d block your favor.
• Assume all units are rookies

Rosters

[P] Phoenix Kings
#	Position	MV	STR	AGI	AV	Skills
1	Thrower	6	3	4	8	Pass, Safe Throw
2	Catcher	8	3	4	7	Catch
3	Catcher	8	3	4	7	Catch
4	Catcher	8	3	4	7	Catch
5	Blitzer	7	3	4	8	Block
6	Blitzer	7	3	4	8	Block
7	Thrower	6	3	4	8	Pass, Safe Throw
8	Lineman	6	3	4	8
9	Lineman	6	3	4	8
10	Lineman	6	3	4	8
11	Lineman	6	3	4	8
Ironcrag Decimators
#	Position	MV	STR	AGI	AV	Skills
1	Black Orc	4	4	2	9
2	Black Orc	4	4	2	9
3	Black Orc	4	4	2	9
4	Blitzer	6	3	3	9	Block
5	Thrower	5	3	3	8	Pass, Sure Hands
7	Blitzer	6	3	3	9	Block
9	Troll	4	5	1	9	Loner, Always Hungry, Mighty Blow Really Stupid, Regeneration, Throw Teammate
10	Black Orc	4	4	2	9
11	Blitzer	6	3	3	9	Block
12	Blitzer	6	3	3	9	Block
13	Blitzer	6	3	3	9	Block

Skip's Answer

1. Position Blitzer 12 so he is adjacent to Blitzer 11, Blitzer 4, and Black Orc 10
2. Throw a block with Lineman 7 at High Elf Blitzer 6 and chain push the prone High Elf towards Black Orc 10 pushing him so he marks High Elf Catcher 4
3. Block High Elf Catcher 4 and push him towards the sideline so he is diagonal to High Elf Blitzer 5.  DO NOT FOLLOW UP.
4. Block High Elf Blitzer 5 with Blitzer 11 and push towards the sideline.  Follow up.
5. Move Thrower 5 and mark High Elf Blitzer 5
6. Block High Elf Blitzer 5 with Blitzer 13 to push him off the pitch!
7. Block High Elf Blitzer 6 with the Troll and push him so that Blitzer 4 is no longer marked.
8. Take a Blitz action with Blitzer 4 and push High Elf Catcher 4 off the pitch!
9. For ball security make sure your flank is not vulnerable to attack.  Position Black Orc 2 and Block Orc 3 so the high elves can't make any easy dodges to blitz your ball carrier.  Throw a 2D block with Black Orc 1. (You have to mark High Elf Lineman 8 or High Elf Lineman 10 with the two Black Orcs you were moving.

Extra solution found by brother: If you move up with Black Orc 10 then make sure to follow up with Blitzer 13! Then when you blitz with Blitzer 4, make sure to attack diagonally so that he gets pushed out by Blitzer 13 position.

Continue to Challenge #7