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-Skipuendi Tasteless

Blood Bowl Challenge #8 (Easy)

Phoenix Kings vs. Got Wood

Click to zoom.

Click to zoom.

Summary

During Match Week 6 at the Old World Football League, Hammertime's Got Wood team (Wood Elves) has put up an early lead against Mardaed's Phoenix Kings (High Elves).  The game has been a nasty slugfest as both coaches have been ruthlessly targeting each other's key players with fouls and blitzes.  After a 4-turn score, Got Wood received a Blitz! kickoff event and has tallied up the score 2-0 on turn 8.  

You're Mardaed and are in control of the High Elves.  You look in frustration as three of your knocked out players fail to wake up.  Your MV9 catcher is also layed out with a niggling injury.  You're trying to stay calm.  You put your Strong Arm Accurate thrower in the backfield and position your men into a one turn TD formation.  The kick is off and a Quick Snap! event is rolled!  Saving the blitz for the catcher, you position Blitzer #6 next to Wood Elf Lineman #5 in hopes of pushing him back into High Elf territory.  You can feel the pressure of the game slipping away.  It's time for you to act!  Score the TD and make this a game again!

Objective

Score a TD.

Rules

• You only have 1 turn left, and you have just started it.
• What's the best chain of events to score the TD.  Who do you blitz?

Rosters

Phoenix Kings (High Elf)
#	Position	MV	STR	AGI	AV	Skills
1	Thrower	6	3	4	8	Pass, Safe Throw, Strong Arm, Accurate, Block, Sure Hands, Catch
2	Catcher	8	3	4	7	Catch, Dodge, Tackle
3	Catcher	8	3	4	7	Catch, Guard
4	Catcher	9	3	4	7	MV+1, Dodge
5	Catcher	8	3	4	7	Dodge
6	Blitzer	7	3	4	8	Block, Mighty Blow, Tackle, Sidestep, Dodge, Fend
7	Blitzer	7	3	5	8	Block, AGI+1, Leap, Dodge
8	Thrower	6	3	4	8	Pass, Safe Throw
13	Lineman	6	3	4	8
14	Lineman	6	3	4	8	Dirty Player
15	Lineman	6	3	4	8
16	Lineman	6	3	4	8

Got Wood (Wood Elf)
#	Position	MV	STR	AGI	AV	Skills
1	Wardancer	8	3	4	7	Block, Dodge, Leap, Mighty Blow, Frenzy, Tackle
3	Catcher	9	2	5	7	Catch, Dodge, Sprint, Side Step, Block, MV+1, Sure Feet, AV +1
4	Lineman	7	4	4	7	STR+, Block
5	Lineman	7	3	4	7	Dodge, Wrestle
6	Lineman	7	3	4	7	Kick
7	Lineman	7	3	4	7	Guard
8	Lineman	7	3	4	7	Dodge, Wrestle
9	Lineman	7	3	4	7
10	Catcher	8	2	4	7	Catch, Dodge, Sprint, Wrestle
11	Thrower	7	3	4	7	Pass, Leader, Sure Hands, Safe Throw Strong Arm, Accurate
12	Treeman	2	6	1	10	Mighty Blow, Loner, Stand Firm, Thick Skull, Guard, Grab, Block, Break Tackle
13	Lineman	7	3	4	7

Skip's Answer

Mardaed was able to score!  In the second half, the Phoenix Kings scored in 2 turns and were hell bent on winning the game through defense.  The Kings came close. The next 6 turns became a mad scramble for the ball with no one scoring.  Final Score 2-2.

The one turn TD is made with three 2D blocks, 2 2+ dodges (1 potential 2+ dodge if the third 2d block is a push), 1 blitz, (2 potential dodges if the blitz is a push, a 3+ dodge and a 2+ dodge) and 2 gfi's.  The blitz poses an interesting problem.  Do you attack the skill-less lineman with 1 die or do you attack the Wrestle, Dodge Catcher with 2 dice?  In either case, if you end up with a push result, you are faced with a 3+ and 2+ dodge.  Feel free to discuss this below.

Update (2/4/2013):

Coach Hitonagashi from FUMBBL brought up a good point.  He suggested that a blitz into the line might not necessarily be the best option.  I looked again at the problem to see if there was an appropriate path for the ball carrier to dodge through the line.  The ball carrier can run down the sideline dodging by Wood Elf lineman #4 to the end-zone.  This would require two 3+ dodges and one 2+ dodge.

Let's break out the calculator and take a look at this hypothetical scenario.  In the first scenario, the ball carrier blitzes a skill-less lineman.  If the blitz results in a push, then then the ball carrier must dodge twice, one through a tackle zone, the other into the end-zone.  He must also make 2 GFI's to score.  This branch results in a success of probability of 19.29% with no reroll.  In the event that the blitz ends with the defender down, the ball carrier only requires 2 GFIs to score.  This branch has a probability of success of 23.148%.  Both branches total 42.438% with no reroll.

Click to zoom.

In the second scenario, the ball carrier does not blitz the line.  Instead an extra block is done at the Line Of Scrimmage to push the ball carrier closer to the end-zone.  This is done to eliminate a GFI, but the ball carrier has to dodge through the line.  In the case where the final block ends in a push, the ball carrier must make an additional dodge.  This branch's probability of success is 17.145%.  The more probable event is that you will select defender down / defender stumbles and knock the marking player down.  This frees the ball carrier to make an advance towards the goal.  For this branch, the probability of success is 31.432%.  This equates to a total probability of success (with no reroll) of 48.577%

Click to zoom.

Decisions, decisions...

From a no-reroll perspective, the second scenario is the clear winner.  The reroll perspective is a different matter.  In this corner case, if you have a reroll and you have the option of knocking down the player marking the the ball carrier before he blitzes, you should take the blitz.  Otherwise, I would try to get the ball carrier closer and have him dodge through the line.  Coach Hitonagashi makes a very valid point. I didn't realize how potent the Dodge skill could be.

Continue to Challenge #9

Blood Bowl Challenge #7 (Hard)

Boneyard Reapers vs. Darkside Marauders

Click to zoom.  The Marauders' Kickoff Formation

Summary

The 2-1 grind...  a staple of Blood Bowl strategy.  During this Old World Football match, the Boneyard Reapers look to become another victim to the Chaos race... or are they?  You're the Undead coach.  It's the last turn and you're receiving the kickoff.  What's the best way to setup for the 1 turn TD?

Objective

Score a TD.

Rules

• You must do it in 1 turn.
• Position a ghoul in the backfield to field the expected incoming kick.  You can still use him for chain pushing, but you must position him at least 6 spaces from the LOS. 
• Assume the kickoff lands off the field, so you can give directly to your ball carrier.
• Assume you win a reroll during the kickoff.
• For simplicity, treat all chaos players as rookies.
• You can use everyone on your roster.
• Once you figure out your strategy, plug your moves into this Samba Calculator to get the probability of success and compare with Skip's solution.  Blood Bowl Calculator

Rosters

Boneyard Reapers (Undead)
#	Position	MV	STR	AGI	AV	Skills
1	Mummy	3	5	1	9	Mighty Blow, Regeneration, Guard, Stand Firm Grab, Block
2	Mummy	3	5	1	9
3	Ghoul	7	3	3	7	Dodge, Side Step, Sure Hands, Block
4	Ghoul	7	3	4	7	Dodge, AGI+
5	Ghoul	7	3	4	7	Dodge, AGI+
6	Wight	6	3	3	8	Block, Mighty Blow, Guard, Tackle
7	Wight	6	3	3	8	Block, Guard, Mighty Blow, Tackle, Strip Ball, Stand Firm
8	Zombie	4	3	2	8
9	Zombie	4	3	2	8
Darkside Marauders (Chaos)
#	Position	MV	STR	AGI	AV	Skills
	Minotaur	5	5	2	8	Thick Skull, Mighty Blow, Loner, Frenzy, Horns Wild Animal
	Chaos Warrior	5	4	3	9
	Beastman	6	3	3	8

Skip's Answer

This problem is very tricky, and my solution is not the one I envisioned at first glance.  I had thought the Mummy with Grab could be used to allow a ghoul to blitz through the line.  I also thought there would be a solution with an AGI+ Ghoul as a ball carrier.  Unfortunately I could not figure either out.  The solution here takes advantage of sidestep, but it requires a 5+ dodge O_o!  If you can do better, let me know!

Here's my solution: (Thank you to Mikkel Pahlke Fausing for his excellent tool! Original Play Creator)

Move #1

Position your players as illustrated.  Since the ball lands out of bounds, give it to Ghoul #3.  Move Ghoul #4, so he marks Beastman (yellow) #3.  This will make your blitz a 3-die block.

Move #2

With Ghoul #5, blitz the Beastman with a 3-die block, but do not follow up.  Push the Beastman into Ghoul #3.  Take advantage of sidestep and push him up and to the left.  Position Ghoul #5 as illustrated.

Move #3

With Zombie #8, block the Beastman into Ghoul #3 and push him up.

Move #4

Move Wight #7 so that he marks both Beastman #2 and Beastman #3.  This will form part of the "T" needed for Mummy #1 and Mummy #2 to chain push.  His guard will help give the mummies 3-die block support.

Move #5

Complete the "T" with Zombie #5.  He adds the extra strength support needed to give Mummy #1 a 3-die block.

Move #6

Block with Mummy #1.  It is here that you're hoping for a knockdown.  If Beastman #3 is knocked down, Ghoul #3 does not have to dodge out when he runs for the end-zone.  Both scenarios are taken into consideration for final probability analysis.  

Move #7

Complete the "T" for Mummy #2.  Mummy #2 should already have a 3-die block with the 2 guard players marking Beastman #2.  

Move #8

Block Beastman #2 with Mummy #2.  In this situation you can get push, defender down, or defender stumbles.  Push Beastman #2 into Beastman #3.  Push Beastman #3 into Ghoul #3.  Now Ghoul #3 can reach the endzone!

Move #9

Run to the end-zone!  Hopefully, Beastman #3 was knocked down so Ghoul #3 doesn't have to dodge out.  Run in between the line, this is a 2+ GFI as well as a 5+ dodge.  The next move into the end-zone will require a 2+ GFI and a 4+ dodge roll.  Remember to dodge into only 1 tackle zone!  Touchdown!  Now let's check the probability analysis.

Samba Calculator Results:

There are two branches.  The block by Mummy #1 can either end up as a push or as Beastman #3 getting knocked to the ground.  If Beastman #3 is down then that's one less dodge for Ghoul #3!  Unfortunately the Samba Calculator does not let you compute using this type of branching system.  We can still use the calculator to do the heavy lifting for us so we can get the answer we need!

When the 3D block is rolled you will have either a 70.3704% chance of rolling defender down / defender stumbles or a 25.9259% chance of rolling a push result.  We have to take this into consideration for our final figures.  The easiest way to do this is to allow Samba to figure out the probability of our two branches of events and then multiplying by the corresponding value of our block result.  Since the probability for a no Team Reroll scenario is calculated by multiplication, we're safe in skipping the 3D block when inputting the events into Samba.  We'll multiply that result with our known figures to probability for that particular branch of events.

Branch #1: Beastman knocked down.  Ball carrier Ghoul does not have to dodge out.

1st block 3D (pushes required)
2nd block 2D (pushes required)
3rd block 3D (do not input this block - we know the probability of rolling this is 70.3704%)
4th block 3D (pushes / defender down / defender stumbles)
Other player: Ballcarrier Ghoul
Go For It 2+
Dodge 5+ with dodge skill
Go For It 2+
Dodge 4+ with dodge skill
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Samba Result without Team Reroll: 9.441%
Multiply by 70.3704%
Success Percent without Team Reroll: 6.643%

Branch #2: Ball carrier has to make a 3+ dodge.

1st block 3D (pushes required)
2nd block 2D (pushes required)
3rd block 3D (push result - do not input this block - we know probability = 25.9259%)
4th block 3D (pushes / defender down / defender stumbles)
Other player: Ballcarrier Ghoul
Dodge 3+ with dodge skill
Go For It 2+
Dodge 5+ with dodge skill
Go For It 2+
Dodge 4+ with dodge skill
-------------------------------------------------------------------

Samba Result without Team Reroll: 7.262%
Multiply by 25.9259%
Success Percent without Team Reroll: 1.883%

Team Reroll Calculation

If we make the assumption that we only reroll our 3D block on a failure then we can approximate the probability of success using a Team Reroll.  We simply plug in our 3rd block as a 3D Block (push / defender down / defender stumbles) and we ignore the NoReroll result from Samba.  We do this for both scenarios so we can get a range.  The true answer lies somewhere in between.

Branch #1: Beastman knocked down.  Ball carrier Ghoul does not have to dodge out.

1st block 3D (pushes required)
2nd block 2D (pushes required)
3rd block 3D (pushes / defender down / defender stumbles)
4th block 3D (pushes / defender down / defender stumbles)
Other player: Ballcarrier Ghoul
Go For It 2+
Dodge 5+ with dodge skill
Go For It 2+
Dodge 4+ with dodge skill
-------------------------------------------------------------------
 Success Percent with Team Reroll: 20.928%

Branch #2: Ball carrier has to make a 3+ dodge.

1st block 3D (pushes required)
2nd block 2D (pushes required)
3rd block 3D (pushes / defender down / defender stumbles)
4th block 3D (pushes / defender down / defender stumbles)
Other player: Ballcarrier Ghoul
Dodge 3+ with dodge skill
Go For It 2+
Dodge 5+ with dodge skill
Go For It 2+
Dodge 4+ with dodge skill
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Success Percent with Team Reroll: 17.043%

Total Probability:  Add both branches to get probability of success in either scenario.

Success Percent without Team Reroll: 8.526%
Success Percent with Team Reroll: In between 17.043% and 20.928%

If the sidestepping ghoul was AGI 4 these probabilities go up to:
Success Percent without Team Reroll: 15.009%
Success Percent with Team Reroll: 32.181% -  34.448%

Continue to Challenge #8